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Machine Learning
Risk Management
Expected Credit Loss Model (ECLM) for Agriculture Sector of Pakistan
Expected Credit Loss Model (ECLM) Demonstration through TensorFlow
KSE-100 Index Estimate through Machine Learning
Economy
Estimating GDP Growth of Pakistan through Machine Learning
Population Estimate through Machine Learning
Aggregate demand curve represents the total demand of an economy at difference price levels.
Aggregate demand curve is downward slop. Demand increases when prices are low and decreases when prices are high.
Curve shifts left and right due to change in money supply. When money supply increases, curve shifts right and when it decreases, curve shift left.
Here actual data of prices and output in Pakistan is given. Each point shows aggregate demand at specific price and output on the curve.
Since money supply in Pakistan is always increasing, therefore every new point is on the right side of previous one showing shift of curve towards right.
For example as shown in the picture below, AD curve shifted to the right during 2011 because money supply increased by 984 billion.
Year
Price
Output
Money
1961
2.08862
19308001300.00000
6964300000.00000
1962
2.07784
20158001200.00000
7596400000.00000
1963
2.10810
21621999600.00000
8875500000.00000
1964
2.19621
24431001600.00000
10779400000.00000
1965
2.31851
28022999000.00000
12058000000.00000
1966
2.48608
30794000400.00000
14605000000.00000
1967
2.65542
35256999900.00000
15081400000.00000
1968
2.65995
38525001700.00000
16959700000.00000
1969
2.74472
41109999600.00000
18580100000.00000
1970
2.89156
47748997100.00000
20752100000.00000
1971
3.02835
50487001100.00000
23609900000.00000
1972
3.18532
54058000400.00000
27734200000.00000
1973
3.92018
66872999900.00000
31562200000.00000
1974
4.96542
86853001200.00000
31182300000.00000
1975
6.00342
112266002400.00000
37797600000.00000
1976
6.43316
132051001300.00000
49967300000.00000
1977
7.08503
149747990500.00000
58935200000.00000
1978
7.51996
176418996200.00000
70629400000.00000
1979
8.14164
195108995100.00000
84117500000.00000
1980
9.11361
234527998000.00000
97321600000.00000
1981
10.19630
278195994600.00000
108537600000.00000
1982
10.79824
324159012900.00000
132232500000.00000
1983
11.48523
364387008500.00000
159881600000.00000
1984
12.18435
419801989100.00000
167312300000.00000
1985
12.86848
472156995600.00000
191985100000.00000
1986
13.31971
514532016100.00000
222842300000.00000
1987
13.94323
572478980100.00000
259396300000.00000
1988
15.17553
675388981200.00000
279377500000.00000
1989
16.36594
769745027100.00000
300054000000.00000
1990
17.84740
855943020500.00000
334991300000.00000
1991
19.95184
1016724000000.00000
398453100000.00000
1992
21.84907
1205204000000.00000
515202100000.00000
1993
24.02822
1333041000000.00000
608626000000.00000
1994
27.00008
1561104000000.00000
714348000000.00000
1995
30.33285
1865922000000.00000
812998000000.00000
1996
33.47953
2120173000000.00000
976155000000.00000
1997
37.28799
2428312000000.00000
1170525000000.00000
1998
39.61029
2677656000000.00000
1262521000000.00000
1999
41.25120
2938379000000.00000
1316989000000.00000
2000
43.05250
3826111000000.00000
1476676000000.00000
2001
44.40790
4209873000000.00000
1650126000000.00000
2002
45.86908
4452654000000.00000
1927995000000.00000
2003
47.20576
4875648000000.00000
2266163400000.00000
2004
50.72006
5640580000000.00000
2731053000000.00000
2005
55.31698
6499782000000.00000
3182515000000.00000
2006
59.69869
8216160000000.00000
4631578000000.00000
2007
64.23500
9239786000000.00000
5439249000000.00000
2008
77.26579
10637772000000.00000
5794143796000.00000
2009
87.81085
13199707000000.00000
6814495817363.99000
2010
100.00000
14866996000000.00000
7807082726900.00000
2011
111.91676
18276440000000.00000
8790979839286.22000
2012
122.75596
20046500000000.00000
10320172533548.00000
2013
132.19529
22385656800000.00000
11694370341859.60000
2014
141.70234
25168805000000.00000
13044335106623.40000
2015
145.30089
27443022000000.00000
14633262962941.40000
2016
150.75345
29102630000000.00000
16625735215555.40000
2017
156.91229
31962610000000.00000
18276890431006.40000
2018
164.88039
34396491000000.00000
20074311419085.40000
2019
182.32093
37972310000000.00000
22417591739487.40000